After the Stage 19 drama on the road to Alpe d’Huez, it looks as if this year’s Tour de France is down to a three-horse race between Andy and Frank Schleck of Leopard-Trek and BMC’s Cadel Evans. Tomorrow’s 42.5-kilometer individual time trial around Grenoble will provide the final battleground for the yellow jersey. With less than a minute separating the three remaining contenders, here’s a quick rundown of their chances.
Andy Schleck (Current race leader)
Despite a rather lackluster first two weeks, Andy Schleck finally claimed the Tour’s yellow jersey after two fantastic days in the high Alps. Now he heads into Saturday’s time trial with a 53-second lead over his older brother and teammate, Frank, and a 57-second lead over Evans.
For many, Evans is an easy winner, but one must keep two things in mind before discounting the young star’s chances. First, the yellow jersey can motivate a rider to perform well beyond expectations (case in point: Thomas Voeckler over the past two weeks). Second, Andy only lost 30 seconds to Evans in a similar time trial during the 2009 Tour de France. Yes, it was two years ago, but it’s still some solace that Andy can limit his losses when he has to. So while it might be a hefty proposition, there’s little to reason to doubt a rider one day and 42.5 kilometers away from sealing up his first Tour de France victory.
Frank Schleck (Second, 53 seconds behind)
Similar to his younger brother, Frank Schleck has never been known for his skills against the clock. He did win last year’s Tour de Suisse in the final time trial, but that had less to do with Frank’s ride than it did with the stunning collapse of then-leader Robert Gesink. With little chance of catching Andy for the win and a place on the podium more or less secure, look for Frank to lose second place to Evans, but maintain his spot on the Tour’s podium
Cadel Evans (Third, 57 seconds behind)
Believe it or not, BMC’s Cadel Evans has spent only one day outside of the top three in the Tour’s General Classification. And with a dominant ride through the countryside surrounding Grenoble tomorrow, he might head to Paris with a yellow jersey for the first time. Aside from having the confidence of knowing that he’s a better time trialist than the Schlecks, Evans has something else going for him: he raced on the same course used for tomorrow’s time trial during June’s Criterium du Dauphiné. This slight mental edge should give Evans an advantage on a course in which every second counts. Cadel “only” needs 57 of them.
The Other Time Trial Battles
While the Schlecks and Evans fight for the Tour’s yellow jersey, there’s also an interesting battle brewing for the Tour’s white jersey as Best Young Rider. Thanks to his win on Alpe d’Huez, Frenchman Pierre Rolland currently leads the competition by 1:33 over Estonian Rein Taaramae of Cofidis. Unfortunately for Rolland, Taaramae took a whopping 2:57 out of him on the same course at this year’s Dauphine—not a good sign. Will defending the white jersey be enough for the Frenchman to hold off the Estonian? With a place in the Tour’s top 10 on the line as well, you can bet the home fans certainly hope so.
That said, these men aren’t the only ones hoping to have a good day Saturday, as several time trial specialists are licking their lips at the chance for a stage win. Among them, Leopard-Trek’s Fabian Cancellara has to be the favorite given his track record (he’s won five time trials at the Tour throughout his career). In addition to contending for the stage, the Swiss star’s performance will also provide his team with valuable time splits and details about the course—information the Schlecks can use when they race later in the day.
RadioShack’s Levi Leipheimer is another rider to watch Saturday. After the collapse of his team’s overall chances during the first week, Leipheimer’s showed signs of life during the last two days in the Alps. If he has anything left in the tank, the American could contend for what would be his second time trial stage win at the Tour de France.
The same can be said of Britain’s David Millar from Garmin-Cervelo. Millar soft-pedaled his way through the last week of May's Tour of Italy with the hopes of coming to that race’s final time trial with fresh legs. His plan worked, giving the former time trial World Champion his biggest win of the season. Millar’s been notably absent from the front of the Tour since Week 1—look for him to be one of the fastest men Saturday.
Do you like dark horses? Look no further than Lampre’s Adriano Malori and HTC-HighRoad’s duo of Tejay Van Garderen and Peter Velits to put in fast times as well. Mention them to your friends now and look like a genius tomorrow!
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